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Пол владеет акциями компании А. В прошлом году он собирался поменять их на долю в компании Б, но не стал этого делать. Теперь он знает, что имел бы на 1200 долларов больше, если бы взял акции Б. Джордж владел акциями компании Б. В прошлом году он решил поменять их на долю в компании А. Теперь он знает, что имел бы на 1200…

Столкнувшись с трудным вопросом, мы отвечаем на более легкий, обычно не замечая подмены.

A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or of any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.

The widespread misunderstanding of randomness sometimes has significant consequences. In our article on representativeness, Amos and I cited the statistician William Feller, who illustrated the ease with which people see patterns where none exists. During the intensive rocket bombing of London in World War II, it was…

In an enduring classic of psychology, Solomon Asch presented descriptions of two people and asked for comments on their personality. What do you think of Alan and Ben? Alan: intelligent—industrious—impulsive—critical—stubborn—envious Ben: envious—stubborn—critical—impulsive—industrious—intelligent If you are like most of…

A Bias to Believe and Confirm The psychologist Daniel Gilbert, widely known as the author of Stumbling to Happiness, once wrote an essay, titled “How Mental Systems Believe,” in which he developed a theory of believing and unbelieving that he traced to the seventeenth-century philosopher Baruch Spinoza. Gilbert proposed…

The evidence that we have about good feelings, cognitive ease, and the intuition of coherence is, as scientists say, correlational but not necessarily causal. Cognitive ease and smiling occur together, but do the good feelings actually lead to intuitions of coherence? Yes, they do. The proof comes from a clever…

The link between positive emotion and cognitive ease in System 1 has a long evolutionary history.

The lesson of figure 5 is that predictable illusions inevitably occur if a judgment is based on an impression of cognitive ease or strain. Anything that makes it easier for the associative machine to run smoothly will also bias beliefs. A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because…

The evidence of priming studies suggests that reminding people of their mortality increases the appeal of authoritarian ideas, which may become reassuring in the context of the terror of death. Other experiments have confirmed Freudian insights about the role of symbols and metaphors in unconscious associations.

Studies of priming effects have yielded discoveries that threaten our self-image as conscious and autonomous authors of our judgments and our choices. For instance, most of us think of voting as a deliberate act that reflects our values and our assessments of policies and is not influenced by irrelevancies. Our vote…

Исследователи сравнивали данные вскрытия пациентов, умерших в отделении интенсивной терапии, с диагнозами, поставленными им прижизненно лечащими врачами. По результатам опыта клиницисты, «абсолютно уверенные» в прижизненном диагнозе, ошибались в 40% случаев. В этой области пациент также поощряет непоколебимость эксперта:…

Горькая ирония нашего существования состоит в том, что мы стремимся одновременно к разным вещам. С одной стороны, мы хотим спокойствия и объясненности. С другой стороны, мы хотим неожиданностей и удовольствий. В примирении этих двух стремлений, по-видимому, заключается единственный шанс человека на продолжительное счастье.

The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained. As Nassim Taleb pointed out in The Black Swan, our tendency to construct and believe coherent narratives of the past makes it difficult for us to accept the limits of our forecasting ability.

I had stumbled onto a significant fact of the human condition: the feedback to which life exposes us is perverse. Because we tend to be nice to other people when they please us and nasty when they do not, we are statistically punished for being nice and rewarded for being nasty.

The social norm against stereotyping, including the opposition to profiling, has been highly beneficial in creating a more civilized and more equal society. It is useful to remember, however, that neglecting valid stereotypes inevitably results in suboptimal judgments. Resistance to stereotyping is a laudable moral…